I'm going to say Obama wins NH but that it's far closer than it was in Iowa. Clinton's stronger in the Northeast, and I think there's going to be a smaller youth vote for him in NH. Also, Independents may vote for McCain, as opposed to Obama, in NH.
So... Obama wins, McCain wins in NH.
Everyone will declare Florida their "firewall."
Except Edwards, who will drop out if he can't win South Carolina. Which, um, he can't.
That's my horserace chatter.
Actually, it's advantageous for Edwards to stay in all the way, even if he continues to pull 17 percent. If neither Clinton nor Obama gets a majority of delegates (and that's a possibility), he could play kingmaker at the convention--and that's probably the only way he lands a VP slot.
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