Here is a little something about the margin of error that showed Kerry ahead of Bush going into the 2004 election. I'm sure you'll hear someone say "We thought Kerry was ahead too..."
Right. But the polls were incredibly close, and the largest underestimation of Bush's final tally was 55 votes.
The polls would have to be massively inaccurate in favor of McCain this time out. They would have to be around 100 electoral votes off, in favor of McCain, for him to beat current trends. And it's estimated that about a third of the votes in this election are already cast.
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