Here is a little something about the margin of error that showed Kerry ahead of Bush going into the 2004 election. I'm sure you'll hear someone say "We thought Kerry was ahead too..."
Right. But the polls were incredibly close, and the largest underestimation of Bush's final tally was 55 votes.
The polls would have to be massively inaccurate in favor of McCain this time out. They would have to be around 100 electoral votes off, in favor of McCain, for him to beat current trends. And it's estimated that about a third of the votes in this election are already cast.
- Matthew Freeman is a Brooklyn based playwright with a BFA from Emerson College. His plays include THE DEATH OF KING ARTHUR, REASONS FOR MOVING, THE GREAT ESCAPE, THE AMERICANS, THE WHITE SWALLOW, AN INTERVIEW WITH THE AUTHOR, THE MOST WONDERFUL LOVE, WHEN IS A CLOCK, GLEE CLUB, THAT OLD SOFT SHOE and BRANDYWINE DISTILLERY FIRE. He served as Assistant Producer and Senior Writer for the live webcast from Times Square on New Year's Eve 2010-2012. As a freelance writer, he has contributed to Gamespy, Premiere, Complex Magazine, Maxim Online, and MTV Magazine. His plays have been published by Playscripts, Inc., New York Theatre Experience, and Samuel French.